Saturday, August 16, 2008

AAA Boys Pre-Season Polls

In an effort to break a personal record and update the front page more than twice in 6 months, I’m putting together some RunTheArb Cross Country pre-season hype and predictions. Now this is about as untechnical as you can get when it comes to predictions, I’m not using advanced logarithms to predict the top teams or calculating the rankings of each and every individual runner in the state. Runwv.com already does a great job of that, and besides, my math is just way too bad. It’s so bad that some of my top 10 lists will probably only go to 4 or 5. Instead I’m going to give you a gut feelings on who I think will be some of the top runners and teams in the state. Jason Santucci and Justin Simpson (and hopefully ”W” as well) will be joining in and we’ll be dishing on who we think some of the big surprises of the season will be based on rumors, hearsay and message board mongering (let’s hope everyone has been telling the truth on the message board).

This is also an official throw down/showdown to RunWv Josh to participate in the Ultimate, All-Out, No Holds-Barred, Prediction Contest of the UNIVERSE!! If he wins he gets to control the RunTheArb message board for a week. And if I win I get to control the RunWV message board, where lunacy and mayhem will reign supreme. Ok, so maybe this won’t happen but a person can dream.

These are my top preseason picks. Once the season gets going I’ll be changing this around some as we see these runners in action. Every Monday we’re going to sit down and re-do our top ten based on performances from the weekend (moving runners up and down a few notches or putting new ones on the list). After the Regional Meet is the last time we can change our picks leading into the state meet. Whoever has the best top 10 picks after the state meet is the supreme ruler of WV high school cross country, and gets bragging rights for the person who spends waaaay to much time following high school cross country. I sure hope it’s me.

Top 10 Boys AAA

1. Zach Tennant (North Marion) – How can you not put Tennant at no. 1 right now? He had a great track season winning the mile against some of the best WV runners this century and was also 2nd in Cross Country with a breakout race. He’s the King of the Mountain going into this season and people are going to have to step up their game to knock him off his roost.


2. Cody Pellicione (Morgantown) – Cody was one of the biggest surprises of the state last year, as he came out of nowhere to finish 6th at the state, an almost impossible task running against older, stronger more seasoned runners. And let’s not make excuses, “Oh it was a weak year” or “Oh it’s just beginners luck” or any of that crap. Last year was a good year for WV running and he was only 8 seconds away from finishing 2nd place. There seems to be a freakish amount of talent with him, and I think we’ll see him make a jump and be challenging up front with Tennant and Hampshire this year.

3. Corey Hampshire (Jefferson) – Here’s one I’ve been waiting to see knock something out of the park for a few years now. He’s probably one of the toughest runners in the state but has had a string of bad luck. If he’s 100% healthy and feeling good it will be a good battle up front.

4. David Caldwell (South Charleston) – I’m starting to think David Caldwell is a machine. When he’s running he looks like an emotionless T-1000 chasing John Conner, bent on killing everyone who stands in his way. But who built this machine?? The answer to that is a key reason to why this guy (?) will continue to improve and be threat for WV state champ.

5. Adam Frohnapfel (University) – If you’re surprised by this then you have not been keeping up.

6. Trey Beckett (Midland) – It’s almost a given that there will be a Midland runner in the top 10. In the past 10 years there has only been one year where it didn’t happen (and that was due to an UnderArmour wardrobe malfunction that took one of their top runners out). Luckily Midland has the talent of Beckett who will improve on last year’s 7th place finish. And as a reward for his high finish he’ll be getting a new tattoo of Billy Ray Cyrus and Hannah Montana to cover his entire back.

7. Caleb Ellis (Saint Albans) – My faith in Coach Henley forces me to have at least one St. Albans guy in the top 10. Rumors have been flying on the message board that these guys have been getting the job done this summer and look to make a run at the team title. This is no surprise, these guys have been on the verge of breaking out for a few years. The surprising thing is, who’s leading the charge for their team this Cross Country season. The unheralded Ellis just ran a 16:38 5K in a local road race, finishing only 15 seconds behind star David Caldwell, but it flew completely under the radar. Maybe people missed it because they didn’t recognize his name, but I’m betting after this season, it won’t happen again.

8. Logan Wojcik (Wheeling Park) – According to the message board – “Logan Wojcik is going for it this year” and I’ll tell you what, I’m a believer. Sometimes you have to filter through all the crap to find it, but there can be some truth to what all the crazy people post. After Debbie Greene he looks to be Wheeling Parks go-to guy, and although he’ll have some big shoes to fill with Beabout being off to UT, this guy looks on track to get the job done this season.

9. Craig Pritt (Preston) – Craig Pritt could not run a step all summer and still be considered a contender for All-State. A Craig Pritt training all summer and getting excited about the season, and setting himself up for a great fall…there’s no telling how far up the list he could be. I’ve been hearing good things from the Preston camp and I want to put him further up the list but for right now I’ll let him sit at 9,th ready to leap-frog the pack on a moments notice.

10. David Ciarolla (Farimont Senior) – My god, Ciarolla is still around? It seems like this guy has been in high school forever. I guess that’s what happens when you’ve been one of the top runners in the state, for 4 years. Since his very first season when he became State Champion, this guy has been one of the most talked about runners in the state. “30 mile long runs on Sunday!”, “He ran a marathon at the age of 4!”, “He can break human bones with his mind!” This guy’s legend continues to grow (and all the stories are true by the way). If David’s in the race you can go ahead and save one of the top ten spots for him. So really that leaves everyone else scrambling for the other 9.


Runners to Watch - The top 10 is never set in stone. There are still a bunch of runners on the bubble that will be fighting to disrupt the order. One slip up on race day and these guys will be gobbling up the competition on their way to All-State honors (in no particular order).

Ryan Smith (Midland) – Midland’s fastest freshman ever, on the track last year.
Sterling Snyder (Preston) – a workhorse who’s had a great summer
Lucas Greza (Morgantown) - Training partner of Pellicione who’s finally coming into his own.
Kyle Gramlich (Wheeling Park) – Finished 5th last year!
Ethan Elliot (University) – Freak of nature and sub 10 runner on the track.
Andy Bailey (St. Albans ) – Did you see this guy race the 800 at states? Freaking tough.
Brandon Doughty (Jefferson) – Superstar freshman last year in Cross.


AAA Boys Teams

1. St. Albans – If St. Albans can time it perfect and get all their guys running great on the same day they’ll snag the victory. With a new-found front runner in Caleb Ellis and a back up crew that includes Bailey, the Osborne twins and Caudill, they’ll be hard to match up to. But if one runner is having an off day then their lack of a 6th guy could really send them spiraling down the list. I’ve seen Coach Henley do it before, and I think he’ll have his crew ready to rock and roll.

2. Midland – With all the hometown bias aside, I could put Midland no. 1 and it would be a legit pick. This team race is going to be very close. Parsons always has his boys ready to rock and roll and they return all but Bias this year. With Beckett (4:32, sub-10, All-State Cross, state champ 4x800) leading the team they’ll need a tight pack running behind him to get the win. If they can keep the 1-5 split under a minute they’ll get the win. And they have the crew to do it with Smith, Queen, Miller, Neiman and Stewart all running within 20 seconds of each other when they’re on.

3. Jefferson – They finished 3rd place as a team last year (only 6 points out of 2nd) and they are returning everyone. But since they are a panhandle team – I really don’t pay much attention to them until the state meet rolls around (Not the same for the Northern Panhandlers). I’m sure they’re all in pretty good shape, but I won’t know it until after the state meet, when I see them on the podium and wonder to myself “Jefferson? Where the heck did Jefferson come from? Who would’ve thought they would finish so high?”

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